How to project cannabis sales in Ontario

2 mins read

Each week, Business of Cannabis delivers a series of insights from our partners at Cannabis Benchmarks®.

The Canada Cannabis Spot Index was assessed at C$6.09 per gram this week, up 0.9% from last week’s C$6.04 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,155 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Ontario’s Alcohol and Gaming Commission (AGCO) last week announced that it will double the number of Retail Store Authorizations (RSA) issued each month to 80. This is a massive increase from the current pace, and a necessary shock to boost legal cannabis sales in Canada’s most populous province. The announcement necessitated an update to Cannabis Benchmark projections for retail expansion and sales in Ontario.

At 80 new stores opening each month, there would be about 1,260 retailers open in Ontario by the end of 2021, up from 240 currently. This would bring the province’s per capita store count to one per 60,000 residents currently to one per 11,500 residents. Cannabis Benchmarks modeling shows that with the increased pace of new store openings, monthly sales will reach C$150M by December 2021, with total cumulative sales in Ontario climbing to C$1.6B by the end of next year.

Source: Canada Cannabis Spot IndexCannabis Benchmarks

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